城市化进程中的能源消费和碳排放问题研究

Research on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Process of the Urbanization

采用Q型层次聚类分析法按城市化发展水平程度将中国30个地区分为低、中、高三组,利用STIRPAT模型对2000-2011年城市化和能源消费以及碳排放之间的关系进行实证分析,研究发现:人口规模、城市化率及第二产业占GDP的比重对能源消费的影响最大;在高水平组中能源消费对城市化率呈现出倒U型环境库茨涅茨曲线;城市化率对各省碳排放量的影响在所有组中都表现为正效应,但效应不显著;人口规模、产业结构与碳排放的关联紧密。中国在加快城市化发展的过程中,要积极开发使用新型绿色能源,为碳减排做出更大的努力。

Using Q- type hierarchical cluster and according to energy consumption and urbanization development, this paper di- vides the 30 regions in China into low, medium and high consumption group, and uses STIRPAT model to analyze the relationship between the urbanization and energy consumption and carbon emissions during years of 2000 -2011, the re- suits show that： the impact of population size, rate of urbanization and the secondary industry share of GDP to energy consumption are largest; in the high - level group, it presents inverted U - shaped environmental Kuznets curve of ener- gy consumption to rate of urbanization; the impact of rate of urbanization on provincial carbon emissions in all groups have shown positive effects, but not significant; population size, industry structure associate with carbon emissions. In the process of China＇ s accelerating urbanization development, it needs to develop and use new green energy actively, and make greater effort to carbon reduction.