美国介入领土争端的行为--基于模糊集定性比较分析的解释

The U.S. Interventions in Territorial Disputes:An Analysis Using FS/QCA

对于为什么美国会采取军事手段介入他国领土争端,既有的研究尚未给出答案。作者以第三方国家干涉行为的"意愿"维度为解释框架,提出争端国双方同美国的实力对比、同盟关系、对外政策相似程度、经济相互依赖、政体相似性这5个因素影响美国对领土争端的干涉手段。借助这一框架,作者设计了5条假设,结合国际关系研究中的现有数据,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法,对这些假设进行验证。研究结果表明,干涉的目标国同美国经济相互依赖程度低、同盟关系水平低、政体相似度大以及干涉的支持国同美国实力差距大与经济相互依赖程度低是美国军事手段干涉领土争端的必要条件;充分条件组合分析得出了5条有效的解释路径,其中干涉目标国同美国实力差距大与对外政策相似度低这两个条件分别出现在这些解释路径中,表明它们对美国军事干涉领土争端有着重要影响,但干涉支持国同美国的同盟关系、对外政策相似程度以及政体相似程度的解释力度不大,美国也常常支持与其政体不相似或不存在同盟关系的国家,这一结果也表明有关第三方国家干涉的"选择效应"并没有在此得到验证。

Why did the U.S.take military means to intervene in other states' territorial disputes? There is no sufficient discussion on this problem in existing literature.The author concentrates on third-party joining behavior's 'willingness' approach as the explaining framework,arguing that there are five determinants of the U.S.military interventions in territorial disputes,which comprises power ratio,alliances relations,similarity degree of foreign policies,degree of economic interdependence,and degree of polity similarity between the U.S.and each disputant.Based on the existing data in field of international relations,the author raises five hypotheses out of this framework,which are examined through a relatively novel method fuzzy-set/qualitative comparative analysis.The results indicate that the lack of economic interdependence and alliance relationship,the great degree of polity similarity between America and the target state,and the great degree of power ratio and the lack of the economic interdependence between the U.S.and the support state are the necessary conditions for U.S.military interventions in territorial disputes.There are five valid explanatory paths on the basis of sufficient condition analysis.Both the great degree of the power ratio and the lack of the similarity degree of foreign policies between the U.S.and the target state exist in those explanatory paths respectively,which reveals that they exert great impact on the U.S.military interventions in territorial disputes.However,the alliance relations and the similarity degree of foreign policies and the degree of polity similarity between America and the support state are not significant in explaining the cases where the U.S.supported some states without alliance relationship and polity similarity.These findings demonstrate that the third-party joining behavior's selection effect is not verified.