中国政府公共支出的碳减排效应研究——基于面板联立方程模型的经验分析

Exploring the Impacts of Government Public Expenditure on Carbon Emissions in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Simultaneous Equation Model

在"节能减排"呼声日益高涨的现实背景下,中国政府加大了对碳排放行业的环境公共支出力度。本文根据1998-2011年中国省际面板数据,考虑政府支出和碳排放的双向作用机制,在碳排放与经济增长相互影响的联立方程模型中引入政府公共支出变量,研究政府公共支出对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:政府公共支出对碳排放既具有负向的直接作用,能够发挥减排效应,又能在经济发展的不同阶段通过促进经济增长来发挥间接作用,间接效应的强弱和方向与收入水平密切相关:在均值收入水平下,政府公共支出对碳排放的影响中正向的间接效应占主导地位,从而使得总效应为正,不具有减排效应。此外,我们计算得出CO2倒N型曲线的转折点为720元和271 445元,到2011年我国所有省份都处于CO2倒N型曲线的上升阶段,人均收入提高会直接增加碳排放,并且离跨越转折高点还有较远距离。进一步研究发现,人均物质资本、经济开放度和产业结构都对碳排放存在正向影响,会加剧地区的碳排放污染;而受教育程度的提高以及人口规模的扩大在一定程度下会增加人们对高质量环境的需求,从而减缓碳排放进程。因此,对经济发展水平不同的地区,亟待实施差异化的公共支出政策来实现经济增长和环境保护的协调发展。

Under the background of energy-saving and emission reduction, China has enforced the environmental public expenditure on industry with carbon emissions. Based on the interactional mechanism between carbon emissions and public expenditure, we make use of panel data of 29 provinces in China during 1998 -2011 to construct the simultaneous equation model, exploring the relationship among carbon emissions, economic growth and public expenditure. The results show that government public expenditure has a negative direct effect on per capita carbon emission, which could hinder emission abatement. Further it could operate through impacting on per capita income to have indirect effect at different stages of economic development. The strength and direction of the indirect effect are closely related to income level. Moreover the total effects of government public expenditure on carbon emissions follow the patterns of positive indirect effects at the mean income level, which means that public expenditure could not reduce carbon emissions at all. Furthermore the two turning-point of the inverted-N-shaped curve is 720 and 271 445 RMB, respectively. All the provinces are situating at the rise phase of the inverted-N-shaped curve. The increasing of per income leads to the carbon emissions, and it＇ s a long time to get through the turning-point. In addition, per capital, trade liberalization and industrial structure have positive effects on carbon emissions, which mean it would aggravate the carbon emissions. While the enhancement of education and population would increase people＇ s requirement of the quality of environment in some extent and slow down the speed of carbon emissions. Therefore, it is urgent to implement different public expenditure policies to achieve the coordinated development between economic growth and environmental protection in different regions.