中国区域碳生产率波动的因素分解

Decomposition on the Fluctuation of China's Regional Carbon Productivity Growth

本文以中国各省份1995-2011年的面板数据为样本,对碳生产率增长率进行了七重因素分解,分解时不仅考虑了能源结构变动的影响,还充分利用了全要素框架下的生产率信息,重点探讨资本、劳动和能源三要素之间的替代效应对碳生产率波动的影响,研究结果表明:1碳生产率增长率的变化主要受技术进步(正效应)、资本能源替代效应(正效应)和劳动能源替代效应(负效应)三个分解变量的影响,而技术效率(负效应)、随机偏差(负效应)、规模效率(正效应)和能源结构效应(正效应)的影响较为有限;2资本能源替代效应和劳动能源替代效应在样本期间的波动幅度最为明显,且两者在影响力度上呈现了此消彼长的角力格局,但两者在影响效果的变化方向上趋于一致;3技术进步和技术效率存在着区域负相关和年份正相关的共存现象,即从省份角度来看,技术进步较快的省份往往导致趋于恶化的技术效率;但从时间角度来看,省份内部的技术进步率趋于降低,而相应的技术效率亦趋于恶化。因此,要想有效提升我国的碳生产率水平,应当重点关注技术进步、资本能源替代效应和劳动能源替代效应的重要作用,一方面要均衡生产技术进步和节能减排技术进步的协调发展,另一方面应叫停当前能源过度深化的格局,不仅要注重发展低能源倾向的资本和技术密集型产业,扭断资本和能源高度相关的倾向,还应该适度提升低能源倾向的劳动密集型产业。

Taking statistics of China＇ s provinces during 1995 - 2011 as samples, this paper disintegrates carbon productivity growth rate into seven factors. This paper mainly discusses the substitution effects between capital, labor and energy, not only considering the impact of changes in the energy structure, also making full use of the information under the framework of total factor productivity, and the results turn out to be as follows： ① The growth rate of carbon productivity is determined by variables as technological progress （positive effect）, substitution effect between capital and energy （positive effect）, and substitution effect between labor and energy （negative effect）, and the effects of technical efficiency （negative effect）, random difference （negative effect）, scale efficiency （ positive effect） and energy structure （ positive effect） are limited. ② The fluctuation ranges of substitution effect between capital and energy and substitution effect between labor and energy are biggest than other variables in the sample period, and there are trading off between them in the angle of impact strength, however, the changing direction of impact effect of both are the same. ③ There＇ s the coexisting phenomenon of regional negative correlation and year positive correlation between technological progress and technological efficiency＇ s effects to growth rate of carbon productivity, which means a quick technology progress would keep company with a worsen technical efficiency from the angle of provinces, and the falling rate of technological progress always keeps company with falling rate of technical efficiency.