中国对外贸易模式动态演变的实证分析——来自SITC(Ⅱ)数据(1987-2012)的经验证据

Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Evolution of China Foreign Trade Pattern

本文使用SITC(Ⅱ)四位数数据考察了中国1987年至2012年间对外贸易模式的变化特征。研究结论表明:2012年与1987年相比,中国总体对外贸易模式发生了实质性转变,动态性是中国对外贸易模式的主要特征。并且,其它(非农)初级产品对外贸易模式的动态性最强,大宗农产品、工业制成品对外贸易模式的动态性次之,高价值农产品对外贸易模式动态性最弱。这意味着中国的对外贸易模式不具有路径依赖和路径锁定特征,动态和演进的对外贸易模式理论更适合解释和指导中国的对外贸易发展。

This paper examines the changes of China foreign trade pattern from 1987 to 2012 by adopting four-digit data of SITC（Ⅱ）.The results show that compared with that of 1987,in 2012,China foreign trade pattern changed greatly,and dynamics became its main feature.Further study testifies the trade pattern of other（non-agricultural）primary products is most dynamic,those of bulk agricultural products and manufactured goods follow it,and that of high-value agricultural products is least dynamic,which means China foreign trade pattern does not have features like path dependent and path lock,while dynamic and evolving foreign trade theories are more suitable for explaining China＇s foreign trade development.