财政支出与经济增长的关系研究——基于协整理论的实证分析

Study on the Relationship between the Fiscal Expenditure and Economic Growth:an Empirical Analysis Based on the Theory of Cointegration

一个国家的财政支出和经济增长之间的关系历来备受人们关注.对于二者之间的相互关系现有的文献并无确定性的结论,促进论、促退论以及无关论均在不同国家的实证检验中获得了支持.主要利用协整理论对1978 ～2011年中国的财政支出与GDP之间关系进行实证研究.研究结果表明：财政支出与GDP之间并不存在协整关系,即不存在长期的经济均衡关系.这对当前中国的财政支出安排有着重要的启示.

The relationship between fiscal expenditure and economic growth of a country has always attracted people＇ s attention. There is no a definitive conclusion for the relationship between the existing literature. Promo- tion, harmfulness and irrelevance are empirically supported in different countries. This article mainly uses cointegration theory to research the reationship between China＇ s fiscal expenditure and GDP from 1978 to 2011. The empirical research results show that there is no cointegration relationship between fiscal expenditure and GDP, that does not exist long -term economic balance relationship. This conclusion has important implications to fiscal ex- penditure arrangement of our country.