城镇化进程与农民收入增长的动态相关性--基于山西数据的分析与考量

The Dynamic Correlation Both Urbanization and Farmers' Income growth:The Analysis and Consideration Based on the Data of Shanxi

根据1978 ～2012年时间序列数据,运用向量自回归模型、Johanson协整检验、Granger检验、预测方差分解、脉冲响应函数等计量经济学分析方法,深度考量山西城镇化发展进程与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性.结果表明,二者之间存在较强的正向交互响应关系,且长期更具显著性.可见,加速推进城镇化进程对农民增收意义重大,而在政策选择上更应重视政策的长期性、稳定性.

In this paper, we accord to the time series data in 1978 - 2012, and use the econometric analysis methods such as the foundation of vector autoregressive model, Johanson cointegration test and Granger test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, to deeply considerate the dynamic correlation between urbanization and farmers＇ income growth. The results show that there is a strong positive interaction response relationship between the both, and more significant for the long term. Therefore, accelerating the urbanization is significant to farmers＇ income growth, and in selecting policies should pay more attention to long- term and stability.