货币政策、银行信贷行为与贷款损失准备——基于中国商业银行的实证研究

Monetary Policy,Bank Lending and Loan Loss Provisioning: Evidence from Chinese Commercial Banks

国际会计准则中关于贷款损失准备计提方法是依据已实际发生损失理论。在经历2008年全球金融危机的冲击后,贷款损失准备被认为是需要优先解决的导致顺周期的三大重要问题之一。本文以2006-2011年期间122家商业银行为样本,通过对我国宏观经济发展趋势进行分析,验证了银行贷款损失准备对银行信贷行为的亲周期效应。通过进一步分析我国货币政策在不同的经济周期对银行信贷的作用效果,以贷款损失准备为视角,从微观层面验证了我国货币政策宏观调控的有效性,为经济下行期货币政策调控的必要性提供了有力的证据。

The loan loss provisioning rules of current accounting standard are called the incurred loss measure, which has been argued reinforcing the financial crisis in 2008. In this paper, based on samples of 122 commercial banks during 2006 to 2011, our empirical results show the pro-cyclicality effect of loan loss provision on commercial banks＇ lending be- havior. In addition, this paper demonstrates that the moderately loose monetary policy in the economic downturn produce reg- ulation effects and effectively reduce the loan loss provisioning pro-cyclicality. So it provides evidences on the consequence of Chinese monetary policy in the economic downturn period.