区域环境承载力、发展能力与经济增长——基于鄱阳湖生态经济区生态足迹的分析

运用生态足迹模型,对鄱阳湖生态经济区2004-2012年生态足迹动态趋势和生态发展能力进行计算和分析。在此基础上建立区域环境与经济发展互相作用的计量模型,以此分析了鄱阳湖生态经济区环境承载力以及社会经济协调情况。研究发现: 鄱阳湖生态经济区区域发展能力得到逐步增强,但区域多样化指数不断下降; 区域人均GDP 与生态足迹之间存在相互影响的关系,区域生态足迹对人均GDP 具有正向影响效应,而人均GDP 与生态足迹之间呈倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线。最后从完善发展成果考核、强化环境保护力度和调整产业结构等方面提出对策建议。

An ecological footprint model is used to calculate and analyze the ecological footprint dynamic trend and ecological capacity of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 2004 to 2012. On this basis, the paper builds up an econometric model of action mechanism between Economy and Environment to analyze the environmental bearing capacity and the coordinated de- velopment of social economy in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone. The results show that the development capacity is increasing, the index of diversification is decreasing, and that there are significant interrelationships between per capita GDP and ecological footprint, the ecological footprint has positive effects on per capita GDP, per capita GDP and ecological footprint show the inverted U - shape Environmental Kuznets Curve. Finally, the research is concluded with the policy rec- ommendations of improving the assessment of development results, strengthening the environmental protection and adjusting the industrial structure.