我国政府人员规模和人口规模非线性系统的动态经济学分析

A Dynamic Economic Analysis on the Nonlinear System of Government Staff Size and Population Scale in China

文章应用动态经济学原理,建立了我国政府人员规模(GM)和人口规模(POP)非线性动态系统(GM-POPNLDS)模型,揭示了我国GM和POP的非线性关系及最优政府人员规模。结果表明:我国POP对GM的影响呈现U型的非线性关系,人口规模在120 398万人时对政府人员规模的影响出现动态的结构性变化。目前,我国POP对GM的影响处于规模不经济状态,说明控制人口规模可以抑制政府人员规模的扩大。GM具有增长极限,与中国人口规模相适应的政府人员最优绝对规模为2 199.702 27万人,最优相对规模为1.3972%。目前,中国政府人员规模较GM-POPNLDS的最优规模还有一定的发展空间,但我国应大大放慢政府人员规模扩张速度。

The paper applies the principles of dynamic economics to establish a nonlinear dynamical system（GM-POPNLDS） between government staff size（GM）and population scale（POP）,and reveals the nonlinear relationship between GM and POP and the optimal size of government staff. The results show that：The impact of POP on GM in China presents the U-shape non-linear relationship, and when population scale is 1,203.98 million, the impact appears dynamic structural changes. At pres-ent,the impact of POP on GM is in a state of diseconomies of scale,which means that the control of population scale can in-hibit the expansion of the size of government staff. GM has the growth limit, the optimal absolute scale of government staff is 21.997 million and the optimal relative scale is 1.3972%, which is compatible with the Chinese population scale. Now, the government staff size of China is smaller than its optimal GM-POPNLDS scale, but the expansion rate of the government staff size should slow down significantly.