基于内生增长模型的货币政策效应研究

Study of Monetary Policy Effect Based on the Endogenous Growth Model

货币政策是维系经济系统正常运行的必要条件。关于货币政策效应问题一直都未形成统一意见,在此背景下厘清中国货币政策问题有着重要意义。在内生增长理论框架下构建一个包含货币参数的经济增长模型来考察货币供给对经济增长的影响,数值模拟表明在稳定状态下货币供给与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系。为了验证理论分析结果在实际经济中的适用性,以中国2000—2013年经济数据为例,采用分位数回归模型进行实证检验,实证结果不仅验证了理论分析结果的正确性,也证明了倒U型关系的稳健性。

Monetary policy is a necessary condition to maintain the normal operation of the eco- nomic system. As for the monetary policy, there has not formed the uniform opinion on the effective- ness. In this atmosphere, it is of significance to clarify the effectiveness of monetary policy. This arti- cle firstly constructs an economic growth model in the framework of the endogenous growth theory, including money to demonstrate how monetary supply influences economic growth. Then, the article makes an in--depth analysis of the theoretical model by the methodology of numerical simulation and finds out that, in the stabilized state, there exists an inverted--U--shaped relationship between mo- netary supply and economic growth. Finally, in order to verify the adaptability of the conclusions from the analysis in the actual economy, this paper takes economic data of China between 2000 and 2013 as an example and makes full use of the quantile regression model to apply an empirical test. The empiri- cal result proves the correctness of theoretical analysis, the adaptability in China＇s actual economy and the robustness of the inverted--U--shaped relationship.