人口老龄化背景下的城乡劳动力资源变动趋势对比研究——兼论乡城劳动力流迁及其影响

A Comparative Study of the Trends of Urban and Rural Labor Resources Against the Background of Aging——also an insights into Rural-urban migration of labor and its impact

文章以2010年第六次人口普查数据为基础,采用多区域人口预测模型,利用PADIS软件对未来40年城镇和农村劳动力资源总量、结构及未来发展趋势进行对比分析,研究发现,中国劳动年龄人口规模在2014年出现高峰,到2025年开始呈快速下降趋势。受中国二元经济结构影响,劳动年龄人口结构也呈现出城乡分化的差异性特征。未来城镇劳动力资源总量总体呈增加趋势,但会经历先增后减的过程,农村劳动力资源呈逐年下降。从结构观察,城乡劳动年龄人口占总人口的比例均呈现不断下降的趋势,各时期城镇劳动年龄人口占比都高于农村。城镇劳动力老化趋势明显,农村劳动力则经历不断老化再到相对合理的过程。

According to the sixth national population census data, the article involves muhi-regional population forecasting model and PADIS software. A comparative analysis was carried out about the amount, structure and the tendency of urban and rural labor resources in the next 40 years. The study shows that it goes to a peak in 2014, and begins a rapid decline in 2025 for the working-age population scale in China. Affected by China＇s dual economic structure, there are great differences in the characters of working-age population structure between urban and rural. Overall the total amount of labor resources indicates an increasing trend in urban, but the reductions will experience after the first increased, and the amount of it in rural area declines year by year. Viewed from the structure, the proportion of working-age population to total population shows a declining trend in both areas, but the proportion in urban is higher than it in rural in each period. The urban workforce is clearly experiencing a trend of aging, while the trend of it in rural areas is relatively changing from aging to reasonable.