危机视角下信用评级加速器效应分析

The Effect of Credit Rating Accelerator from the Perspective of Crisis

信用评级在金融危机传导中的作用引起了学者们的广泛关注与反思,本文以信用评级加速器效应为切入点对这一问题进行研究。在对金融危机时期信用评级下调特征进行分析的基础上,结合前人关于评级与经济周期的关系、评级的影响因素、信息价值等问题的研究成果,指出金融危机会通过恶化金融体系稳定性、经济增长前景和财政稳定性而推动信用评级下调,并且,信用评级下调会通过负向信息效应、资产组合调整效应和阈值效应恶化金融危机传导,评级加速器效应的存在加快了危机传导速度、扩大了危机传导广度、增加了危机传导深度。最后,探讨评级加速器效应得以形成和存在的前提条件,并在弥补资金缺口、危机救助及时性、避免错误信号传递等方面提出政策建议。

The paper analyzes this subject from the perspective of credit rating accelerator. It believes that financial crisis can downgrade the credit rating through deteriorating the stability of financial system, prospect of economic growth and stability of fiscal stance. Besides, the downgrade of credit rating can exacerbate the transmission of financial crisis on the basis of combing the features of credit rating during financial crises and combining the previous study on the relationship between credit rating and business cycle, the influencing factors of credit rating and information value. Then, it examines the economic function of rating accelerator from the aspect of the speed, extent and deepness of financial crisis transmission. Finally, it discusses the preconditions of credit rating accelerator and puts forward some suggestions.