牧民定居规模与牧区产业发展的实证研究——以甘南为例

An Empirical Study of Herdsman's Settlement Scale and Pastoral Herders Industrial Development:Case from Gannan

牧区的非平衡发展是产业选择的直接后果。由于定居规模与产业发展的相关性依旧不明晰,造成了区域内各项社会经济改革的滞后。牧民定居规模与牧区产业发展关联度、牧区经济系统的回归模型、牧区产业发展决策等定量分析表明:现有牧区经济模式下,政府在产业选择方面的控制力强于市场因素;现有牧区产业发展依赖人口规模与第一产业的程度较高,但社会整体效益非最优;甘南州牧民定居规模应当保持适度规模,长期来看,最优模式应加大第三产业投入,通过扩大牧区劳动力市场规模来实现人口定居规模的扩大。

Unbalanced development in pastoral areas is a direct consequence of the industrial choices.Since the set-tlement size and industry relevance is still not clear, which caused a lag in the regional socio-economic reforms.Quantita-tive pastoral herders to settle in scale industrial development and correlation, regression model pastoral economic system, pastoral industry development and decision-making analysis showed that：the existing pastoral economy, the government in control of industry and strong choice in market factors;existing pastoral industry higher degree of development depends on population size and the primary industry, but society as a whole benefits of non-optimal;Gannan herdsmen settlement scale should remain moderate scale, long term, the best model should increase investment in the tertiary industry, by expanding the pastoral labor expand the size of the market to realize the scale of population settlement.