人民币实际汇率变动对就业的影响——基于中国制造业总体的实证研究

The Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate Changes on Employment: An Empirical Analysis based on Overall Manufacturing Industry of China

本文通过构建小国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,推导出汇率变动影响就业的传导机制以及汇率的测算公式,并利用现值法、分解法和加权法测算出人民币实际汇率,然后利用岭回归实证研究了人民币实际汇率变动对中国制造业就业和工资的影响。研究发现:汇率的长期趋势在实际汇率构成中的比重远大于短期趋势,所以汇率长期趋势对就业的影响远大于短期趋势的影响,因此选取加权法测算的人民币实际汇率作为汇率指标更加合理;通过制造业进口投入水平和出口份额这两条传导机制,人民币实际汇率升值会导致制造业就业水平下降,但进口投入水平上升或出口份额下降会部分地抵消这一不利影响。

Through establishing dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country's economy,this paper derives transmission mechanism of exchange rate changes influencing employment and exchange rate estimation formula. At the same time,this paper calculates RMB real exchange rate by using present value method,decomposition method and weighted method. Then utilizing ridge regression,this paper dose empirical research on impact of RMB real exchange rate changes on employment and wage of manufacturing industry of China. The study founds that: proportion of long-term trend of exchange rate in real exchange rate is greater than proportion of short-term trend,so impact of long-term trend of exchange rate on employment is greater than impact of short-term trend. Therefore selecting RMB real exchange rate estimated by weighting method as exchange rate indicator is more reasonable. Through the two transmission mechanisms: imported input level and export share of manufacturing industry,appreciation of RMB real exchange rate will lead the level of manufacturing industry employment to decline. However,rise of imported input level and decline of export share can offset the adverse effect partially.