中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究

The Study on the Effect of China's OFDI on International Trade

本文将我国对外直接投资的主要东道国划分为经济发达国家、资源丰裕类国家、新兴经济体及其他不包含资源丰裕类的发展中国家等3类，在使用2003～2011年面板数据的基础上利用扩展的引力模型分析了我国对外直接投资贸易效应的国别差异。研究表明，我国对外直接投资的贸易效应存在显著的国别差异。我国对发达国家和新兴经济体及其他不包含资源丰裕类的发展中国家的直接投资会减少我国对这些国家的贸易出口流量，而对我国贸易进口流量的影响并不显著，这表明我国对这些国家的直接投资仍然是以突破和规避东道国的贸易壁垒为主。我国对资源丰裕类国家的直接投资会增加我国的进出口贸易流量，存在显著的贸易创造效应。

This paper uses panel data from 2003 to 2011 and takes the method of extended gravity model to analyze the country specific difference of trade effect of outward foreign direct investment from China by dividing the typical 20 host countries with the most direct investment into three categories: the developed countries,abundant resources countries,emerging economies and other relevant developing countries. The result shows that there is significant country specific difference of outward foreign direct investment from China. OFDI from China in developed countries and emerging economies and other relevant developing countries will reduce export trade flow to these countries while the impact on China's import trade flow is insignificant,and it indicates that China's direct investment in these countries is still dominated by breakthrough and evading host country's trade and non-trade barriers. The direct investment in abundant resources countries can promote import and export trade flow of China and has significant trade creation effect.