技术进步、技术产业化与碳排放效率——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

Analysis on Technological Progress,Technological Industrialization And Industrial Carbon Emissions Efficiency:Based on China's Provincial Panel Data 1998-2012

既保证经济持续平稳较快发展,又兑现对国际社会的碳减排承诺,是我国经济发展面对的新命题。本文利用DEA-SBM模型测算了1998—2012年中国31个省(市)地区碳排放效率;并利用各省(市)1998-2012年度的面板数据,分析了高技术产业、产业结构、人均GDP、技术水平、对外贸易对我国整体以及不同区域的碳排放效率的影响。研究结果证实了发展高技术产业能够带来碳排放效率的提升,但高技术产业对碳排放的影响具有边际递减效应;产业结构优化、人均GDP的提高和技术进步能够提升碳排放效率;对外贸易能够带来西部地区碳排放效率的提高,但对东部地区碳排放效率的提高有抑制作用。在此基础上提出了相关政策建议,以期实现中国低碳经济发展目标。

How to fulfill the promise of reducing carbon emission under the premise of ensuring stable and rapid economic development is an important proposition that china must face. Based on DEA -SBM Model and the panel data of 31 provinces covering the years from 1998 to 2012, this paper measure the efficiency of the carbon emissions of 31 provinces between 1998 and 2012, and researches the relationship between high - tech industry, Industrial structure, per capita GDP, technology, international trade and carbon efficiency in china and different areas. The result shows that high -tech industry does have positive effect on enhancing carbon efficiency, and further confirmed the impact high -tech industry on carbon emission has diminishing marginal benefits. Optimization of industrial structure,increase in per capita GDP and technological progress contributes to enhance the carbon efficiency; International trade can bring the western region to improve the carbon emission efficiency , but inhibit carbon emissions efficiency of eastern regions. Relative policy suggestions are given based on the research to adapt to the road of China＇s low carbon economy.