北极海冰消融及其对欧亚冬季低温影响的研究进展

Arctic Sea Ice Declining and Its Impact on the Cold Eurasian Winters: A Review

21世纪以来北极气候系统正在发生着剧烈变化。北极海冰史无前例的急剧消融是其中最重要的指示和衡量标志。北极海冰的急剧消融与北极气温升高紧密联系,在近年来欧亚大陆频发的冬季低温事件中也扮演着关键角色。首先介绍了北极海冰的季节特征及近年来的消融现状,并从动力学和热力学2个方面总结了海冰急剧消融的可能原因。阐述了北极增温的季节特点及其与北极海冰消融的关系。分析了北极海冰消融与欧亚大陆冷冬频发的联系及其可能机理。基于对以上研究进展的总结,提出了该研究领域尚需解决的几个问题,为相关研究提供参考。

The Arctic climate system has been changing dramatically since the 21st century, of which the most important indicator is the unprecedented declining of the Arctic Sea Ice （ASI）. The low ASI is not only closely re- lated with Arctic amplification, but also plays a central role in the frequent cold Eurasian winters. In this paper, the seasonal feature of ASI and the current situation are introduced, and the possible reasons for the rapid shrinking of ASI are analyzed both dynamically and thermodynamically. Furthermore, the seasonal feature of the Arctic war- ming and its connection with ASI declining are discussed. The impact of the ASI declining on the atmospheric cir- culation in the northern winter hemisphere is summarized. The relationship between the ASI declining and increased occurrence of cold winters in Eurasia, as well as the potential mechanisms, are investigated. Lastly, this study pro- poses several issues that remain to be solved in this area.