豆粕价格与生猪价格波动关系的实证研究

Empirical study on the fluctuation relation between soybean meal price and pork price

文章从实证的角度,运用协整检验、格兰杰检验和脉冲响应函数等方法,深入分析了我国豆粕价格与生猪价格的相互关系。发现豆粕价格和生猪价格存在双向的因果关系,二者具有长期均衡关系,豆粕价格每波动1%,生猪价格将同向波动0.325 4%,从短期来看,豆粕价格对生猪价格的影响和生猪价格对豆粕价格的影响均存在一定的时滞,但豆粕价格对猪价的影响大于猪价对豆粕价格的影响。基于上述结论,提出了相应的政策建议。

The article thoroughly analyzed the interrelation between soybean meal price and pork price by the methods of cointegration test, Granger causality test and Impulse response function from the angle of empirical research. The results show that soybean meal price and pork price exists two-way causality and has long-term equilibrium relationship. Pork price will accordant fluctuate 0.325 4% when soybean meal price fluctuate 1%. In the short term, the influence of soybean meal price on pork price and pork price on soybean meal price have certain time viscosity, but the influence of soybean meal price on pork price is larger than the influence of pork price on soybean meal price. Based on the above conclusions, the article put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.