基于气象和空气质量观测数据的日太阳辐射估计

Estimation of Incident Daily Solar Radiation from Meteorology and Air Quality Observation

研究城市气象参数与城市近地面污染物对水平面太阳辐射强度的影响,并尝试建立水平面太阳辐射与气象、城市空气污染物观测数据的回归模型.1）收集了广州市2009~2012年水平面日太阳总辐射、地面气象数据、近地面空气污染物历史记录数据;2）根据太阳辐射传输理论和前人相关研究进行水平面太阳辐射的影响因素分析,并对收集到的数据进行处理;3）对水平面太阳总辐射、地面气象、近地面污染物浓度的观测数据进行相关性分析,分别建立了总体样本和分区间样本下的水平面太阳总辐射与气象、空气污染物观测数据的回归模型.结果表明,用单一回归模型解释各种影响因素对太阳辐射的削弱并不合理,而分区间样本下的分段回归模型反映了水平面太阳总辐射的随气象变化和颗粒物浓度变化的规律,预测结果也较为准确.

The present study was focused on the influence of meteorological and air quality data on horizontal solar radiation,attempting to establish the regression model of horizontal solar radiation from meteorological and air quality data. Firstly,observed meteorological variables including daily maximum and minimum temperatures,relative humidity and cloud had been obtained; observational data of horizontal solar radiation and air quality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2012 was collected. Secondly,the collected data was analyzed based on the transportation theory of solar radiation and previous studies. Thirdly,correlation analysis was applied to solar radiation,meteorological data and air pollutants concentration,the regression models of overall sample and partition samples were established. The results show that,it is not reasonable to explain the effects of various factors on solar radiation weakened using a single regression model because the single regression model was conflicted with the result of correlation analysis and previous studies; piecewise regression models of partition samples can reflect the variation of solar radiation with meteorology and particle matter concentration,and the prediction results are accurate enough. The piecewise regression models could be helpfulto provide information of solar radiation distribution in areas without solar radiation observation.