基于Bayes理论的鱼雷贮存可靠性评估与验证

Reliability Evaluation and Verification of Torpedo Storage Based on Bayesian Theory

为了对鱼雷贮存可靠性进行合理评估,运用Bayes理论对鱼雷平均故障间隔贮存时间进行了估计,并建立了鱼雷贮存可靠性验证的数学模型,制定了相应的可靠性验证方案。该方案不仅利用了样本信息,而且还能充分利用鱼雷的先验信息,使鱼雷贮存可靠性评估的结果更加合理。本文研究结果可为鱼雷贮存可靠性管理提供相关的理论依据。

To evaluate the reliability of torpedo storage, Bayesian theory is used to estimate the mean time between failures（MTBF） of torpedo storage. A mathematical model for reliability verification of torpedo storage is established, and the corresponding plan of the reliability verification is formulated. Not only the sample information is used by the plan in this paper, but also the prior information of a torpedo. So the evaluation of torpedo storage reliability can be more reasonable.