海南省人均卫生费用的自回归移动平均模型研究

Study on forecasting the per capita health expenditure of Hainan province with ARIMA model

目的 :通过对海南省人均卫生费用的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测,为地方卫生行政部门的科学决策提供参考。方法:利用Eviews 5.0统计软件对时间序列数据进行处理和分析,建立ARIMA模型进行预测和检验。结果 :ARIMA(3,2,2)模型为海南省人均卫生费用提供了较好的预测,模型反映人均卫生费用呈现逐年增长的趋势。结论:人均卫生费用逐年增长,海南卫生行政部门应合理控制卫生费用增长。

Objective：To provide reference for health administration departments through fitting ARIMA model to forecast per capita health expenditure of Hainan province. Methods：Eviews 5.0 software was used for time series analysis and ARIMA model was set up. Results：ARIMA（3,2,2）is considered as the most suitable model through pattern recognition and model test. Conclusion：Per capita health expenditure of Hainan province showed a tendency of increasing. It is suggested that the health administrative department should control rational growth of health expenditure in Hainan province.