焉耆盆地耕地数量时空变化驱动力及生态环境效应分析

The drivers and ecological effects of spacio-temporal dynamics farmland in Yanqi Basin

利用1988—2011年统计资料,采用多元统计分析与文献调查方法,分析焉耆盆地近20多年来耕地时空变化情况及其驱动机理,并讨论耕地动态变化对研究区生态环境的影响。结果表明:(1)1988—2011年间,焉耆盆地耕地面积动态变化存在着明显的波动状态,大体上呈增加趋势。耕地面积从1988年的76.25×104hm2增加至2011年的135.70×104hm2,增加幅度为178%,净增加59.45×104hm2,各县耕地面积变化趋势基本相同;(2)影响焉耆盆地耕地动态变化的驱动因子可归纳为政策变动、经济发展、人口增长、农业科技进步等四大因素;(3)耕地动态变化在某种程度上改善焉耆盆地生态环境同时,导致了绿洲外围沙漠化,绿洲内部土壤盐渍化,湖泊、湿地减少等一系列生态环境问题,威胁了绿洲稳定性。

Using statistic data and based on multivariate statistical analysis and literature survey,the dynamics and drivers of farmland changes in Yanqi Basin within 1988-201 1 were analyzed and the effects of farmland change on eco-environment were studied.Results showed that：（1）The changes of farmland area in Yanqi Basin within 1988-2011 were fluctuated,and total area of farmland increased during the study period .The total area of farmland increased from 76 .25 ×104 hm2 in 1988 to 135 .70 ×104 hm2 in 201 1,while it increased 178%with the net increase of 59 .45 ×104 hm2,and the changing trends of total farmland area were similar among counties;（2）The main drivers of farmland dy-namics in Yanqi Basin including government policy,economic development,population increase and the progress in agri-cultural techniques;（3）Farmland dynamics has improved the eco-environment of Yanqi Basin to some extent,whereas resulted in a series of eco-environmental problems such as desertification around the outer oasis,salinization in the inner oasis,and degradation of lake and wetland,which have been threatening the stability of the oasis .Results of the study could provide scientific basis for reasonable use of farmland resources of oasis,and for maintaining ecological security and sustainable development of oases in arid land .