区域可持续相对人口承载力测算——以合肥市为例

Estimate of Regional Sustainable Population Carrying Capacity——Take Hefei as the Example

以全国为参照区,合肥为研究区,介绍了以自然、经济资源为考量的区域可持续相对人口承载力的分析方法,并运用相关数学模型对2011~2020年合肥与全国的人口总量、农作物播种面积、生产总值等指标值进行预测。分析结果表明：自1990~2013年合肥区域可持续发展相对资源人口承载力小于实际人口量,人口发展处于不可持续阶段,人口规模不利于推动该区可持续发展;2013年以后,合肥区域可持续发展相对资源人口承载力大于实际人口量,人口发展处于可持续发展阶段,人口规模将有利于推动该区域可持续发展。概括来说,过去合肥虽处于人口过载状态,但随着经济的发展,人口承载力的提升,未来将会处于人口承载力富余的状态。

Taking the country as the reference area, Hefei as the study area, this paper introduces the analytical method of regional sustainable population carrying capacity of relative resources. Natural sources and economic resource are used as examined objects. Related mathematical models are adopted to predict the population, crop planting area, gross pro- duction and so on between 2011 and 2020. Analysis results show that the regional sustainable population carrying capacity of relative resources in Hefei is less than the amount of the actual population between 1990 and 2013, the development of population in Hefei locates in the stage of unsustainable and the size of the population goes against the sustainable devel- opment of the region~ the regional sustainable population carrying capacity of relative resources is greater than the amount of the actual population after 2013, the development of population in Hefei locates in the stage of sustainable and the size of the population promotes the sustainable development of the region. On the whole, the population of Hefei located in the stage of overload in past, but with the economic development and the enhancement of the population carrying capacity, Hefei＇s future will be in the state of the surplus population capacity.