腹地经济与港口经营效益互动关系实证研究

Empirical research on interaction between hinterland economy and port operating efficiency

借助面板数据模型等计量经济方法,选取我国13个港口1990-2012年的全港货物吞吐量和其所在城市同期的GDP、就业人员数量、外商直接投资额和固定资产投资5项经济指标数据,利用单位根检验和协整检验度量了相关数据的平稳性和协整性,在此基础上检验了港口货物吞吐量和其所在城市各项经济指标间的相互影响程度,定量测度了腹地经济与港口经营效益的互动关系。实证结果表明,腹地经济和港口经营效益之间存在明显的相关性,主要表现为港口吞吐量与腹地城市地区生产总值之间呈现出正相关关系,以及港口经营效益的提升可以增加腹地城市的就业率等。

The cargo throughput of 13 ports from 1990 to 2012 and the economic data of GDP,employed population,foreign direct investment and investment in fixed assets of the cities where the ports are located are selected. The stability and co-integration of the related data are measured using the unit root tests and cointegration tests by means of the econometric methods such as the panel data model. On this basis,the degree of mutual influence between cargo throughput of ports and various economic indices in the cities where the ports are located is tested,and the interaction between hinterland economy and port operating efficiency is quantitatively measured. The empirical results show that there is a significant correlation between hinterland economy and port operating efficiency,that is,it is mainly a positive correlation between the total throughput of the ports and the GDP of hinterland areas, and the improvement of port operating efficiency can increase the employment rate in the hinterland cities.