黑河流域分水政策制度变迁分析

Institutional evolution of water allocation policies in Heihe River basin since 1960

分析黑河分水政策制度变迁过程,辨析其中利益相关者作为相互博弈的主体各自所面临的成本-收益处境,探讨造成各个主体不同的偏好取向的更深层次社会政治经济环境根源,无疑能从更高的层面理解整个制度走向,为更好地改进政策制度提供有益的启示。总结1960年以来黑河流域分水政策制定实施的历史,提出了分水政策制度变迁的一个可能的模型,即一个将中央政府、地方政府和居民(尤其是农村居民)三元主体纳入的完整的、一般性的制度变迁模型。旧制度结构的变迁和新制度结构的得出,是三元主体在成本约束下最大化自身利益的策略下,对制度选择空间本身或在制度选择空间内部进行多次博弈的结果。三元主体各自面临的成本-收益,规定了他们在制度变迁中的地位与策略行为。最后,对分水政策制度的改进提出了建议。

The evolution of water allocation policies in Heihe River is analyzed. The various cost-income predicaments of the stakeholders as the subjects of game are investigated,and deeper social,political,economic and environmental sources to cause the subjects' preferences are discussed. It is undoubted to understand the institutional evolution at higher level and to provide useful inspiration for the improvement of policy system. The history of formulation and implementation of water allocation policies in Heihe River basin since 1960 is summarized. A possible model for the institutional evolution is of water allocation policies is proposed,that is,an integrated and general model for the institutional evolution including three parts of the subject, the central government, local government and inhabitants( especially rural inhabitants). The institutional evolution of the old system and the derivation of the new system are the results that the three parts are balanced on the basis of repetitious game playing in the system selection of the space itself or within the space according to the strategy of maximizing their own interests under the constraint of cost control. Three parts of the subject stipulate their positions and strategic behaviors of the system evolution in face of their cost-income situations. Finally,some suggestions are proposed for the institutional improvement of water allocation policies.