中国与印度人口转变的经济效应——基于1960-2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

The Economical Effects of Demographic Transition about China and India——Basing on Empirical Analysis of Time Series from 1960 to 2010

使用19个亚洲国家、1960-2010年的面板数据,比较了印度和中国人口转变的过程及所带来的经济增长,预测了中印两国人口发展趋势及对经济增长的贡献。样本期内,中国人口转变因素解释了人均GDP增长的35.3%,而印度为29.1%,态势上,印度人口转变对经济增长的贡献一直平稳上升;而中国经历了20世纪80年代的高点之后开始下降;未来发展趋势上,中国人口转变带来的人口红利会在本世纪30年代变为负数;而印度在2050年前一直维持较大的正值。

Using the data of 19 Asian countries from 1960 -2010, This paper compares the process of India and China＇s demographic transition as well as the effects of the resulting economic growth. The results shows that the demographic transition can explain 37.3% of the per capita GDP growth in China, and 29.1% in India. India has been in a steady rising trend in the contribution of demographic transition to economic growth, while China began to decline after experiencing a high point in the1980s. In the future, China^s demographic dividend will turn negative in the 2030s; while India will have maintained a large positive value until 2050s.