财政分权体制对劳动力转移影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Decentralization System on Labor Transfer

基于政府支出内生经济增长理论,探讨地级市政府财政自主程度对于服务行业分行业劳动力流动的影响,将行业劳动力变更细分为跨地区和跨行业两类指标,结合2004年至2011年中国城市统计年鉴构建的面板数据,在区分面板数据类型基础上分别采用固定效应模型或随机效应模型研究财政分权体制下这两类指标的变化。研究结果表明,在控制一系列影响因素后,地方财权的扩张只对交通、仓储及邮电、房地产和租赁商务以及服务行业劳动力流入产生正向影响,而批发零售、住宿餐饮、金融和信息行业在地方财权扩张时就业空间受到一定的挤压,导致本地劳动力流出。在跨行业的劳动力流动问题中,受地方财权扩张正向影响的行业为房地产、金融和租赁商务,其他行业则会由于地方政府财税自主权的提升造成就业萎缩;此外,地方政府财权自主程度提升会加剧地区及行业间劳动力的流动。

Based on government spending endogenous economic growth theory, the paper discusses the impact of prefecture-level government fiscal autonomy degree on the service industry labor mobility. Subdividing industry labor into trans-regional and transindustry workforee changes two types of indicators, this paper uses 2004-2011 panel data by China city statistical yearbook built, and adopts the fixed or random effect model on the basis of panel data types to study the change of above two kinds of index under the system of fiscal decentralization. Study conclusion shows that in the control of a series of factors, the expansion of local financial has positive impacts on increase of labor limited to transportation, storage and post and telecommunications, real estate and leasing business. Yet the employment space in wholesale and retail, catering accommodation, finance and information industry will be squeezed because of local financial expansion, Leading to the outflow of local labor. In terms of cross-industry labor mobility problems, real estate, finance and lease service is positively influenced by local financial expansion, whereas employment will decrease in several other industries caused by increase of local government tax autonomy. In addition, this paper also finds that ascension of the local government financial autonomy degree will aggravate the flow of labor between areas and industries.