进口安全视角下中国棉花进口波动研究

On China's Cotton Import Fluctuation from the Perspective of Import Security

论文针对进口安全问题,利用1992-2012年时间序列数据,以中国棉花进口为研究对象,运用进口市场集中度、进口依存度、自给率、贸易竞争力等方法从控制力和竞争力角度对中国棉花进口安全程度进行研究。分析得出:中国棉花供求矛盾突出;棉花进口维持在较高水平;棉花进口集中度较高;中国棉花进口依存度逐步由"不安全"状态向"危机"状态转变;中国棉花的自给率一直处于"危机"状态;中国棉花贸易竞争力也较弱,棉花安全也处于"危机"状态。

Aiming at import security problems, taking Chinese cotton imports as the research object, with the methods of import market concentration, import dependency, self - sufficiency, trade competitiveness and so on, this paper uses the time series data of 1992 -2012 to study China cotton import safety degree from the perspective of control and competitiveness. The results show that： the contradiction in Chinas cotton supply and demand is obvi- ous;Cotton import maintains at a higher level;Cotton import concentration is higher; China~ cotton import depend- ence is changing gradually from the ＂unsafe＂ state to a state of ＂crisis＂ ;the self-sufficiency rate of China＇s cotton has been in a state of ＂crisis＂ ; China cotton trade competitiveness is weaker and cotton security is also in a state of ＂crisis＂.