基于社会学习的创新扩散模型构建与实证

Modeling and empirical study of innovation diffusion based on social learning

研究异质消费者的社会学习效应和创新扩散模型对于创新企业具有重要意义.根据社会学习的主体认知过程和消费者网络结构的线上线下差异性,构建两阶段社会学习(TSSL)模型和线上线下(O2O)学习模型,探索多层次网络叠加条件下的扩散规律,弥补传统扩散模型和社会网络分析的仿真方法缺陷.针对我国图书发行扩散数据进行实证研究发现,基于消费者网络的创新扩散模型较好地拟合样本数据;在图书发行扩散中消费者的社会学习效应发挥重要作用;基于消费者网络的创新扩散模型表明,各图书产品面对消费者网络拓扑结构的非一致性,揭示各产品消费者群体创新采纳的学习影响机制差异性,研究结果有益于深入了解创新产品扩散的内部规律及制定针对性的营销策略.

It is meaningful for the enterprises to study social learning effect and innovation diffusion models of heterogeneous consumer. According to subject cognitive process by social learning and differences between online and offline of consumer network structure, this paper constructs two-stage social learning （TSSL） model and online to offline or o^ine to online （020） learning model to explore the diffusion law under the condition of multi level cascade network. The innovation diffusion model based on the consumer network takes into accounts both the actual diffusion data and practical consumer network. It is demonstrated from the empirical study on books in China that the model based on consumer network fits the actual books diffusion data better and the social learning effect plays a very important role in the diffusion process. The model based on consumer network reveals different consumer network structures and learning influence mechanisms of different books, These results are beneficial to understand essential learning rules for innovation products and design pertinent marketing strategies.