中国经济内外失衡问题研究──基于改进型斯旺模型

Research of Internal and External Imbalances of China's Economy Based on Modified Swan Diagram

本文针对近年来中国经济内外失衡的现象,利用解决该问题的经典方法——斯旺模型进行研究。针对原斯旺模型存在的不足,对其进行修正与改进,继而基于所得改进型斯旺模型,利用Granger因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等多种方法,对中国经济内外失衡状态予以实证分析,判断得出内外失衡关系与所处失衡区域。最后提出采用紧缩的支出增减政策与紧缩的支出转换政策的搭配调节措施,以使中国经济回归内外均衡发展。

Against the background of increasing internal and external imbalances of China＇s economy in recent years, this paper uses a classical method -- the Swan Diagram to address the imbalance issue. Understanding the shortcomings of the original Swan Diagram, the paper firstly makes some modifications on the diagram, on the basis of which this paper utilizes Granger causality test, VAR （vector autoregression） model, IRF （impulse response function） and variance decomposition method to analyze the intemal and external imbalances in China＇s economy, confirming the internal and external imbalances and identifying the areas of imbalance. Finally, the paper proposes an adjustment measure including the tightening expenditure-changing policy and the tightening expenditure-switching policy in a bid to bring China＇s economy back to the internally and externally balanced development.