基于投入产出分析的印度对外贸易隐含碳研究

Input-Output Analysis of Carbon Emissions Embodied in India's Foreign Trade

本文采用双边投入产出模型,基于技术异质性假设,利用非竞争型投入产出表,对印度1995-2009年对外贸易中的隐含碳进行了测算,并使用SDA模型对其出口隐含碳变化进行了因素分解分析。测算结果表明,印度出口隐含碳在1995-2009年间增长迅速,由115Mt增长至725Mt,增长了530%;进口隐含碳也在不断增加,由39Mt增长至215Mt,增长了451%;印度是一个贸易隐含碳净出口国。因素分解结果表明:规模效应和技术效应是印度出口贸易隐含碳增长的主导因素;结构效应有助于印度出口贸易隐含碳的减少,但是影响相对较小。最后,本文对印度减少出口贸易隐含碳和中印合作应对气候变化提出政策建议。

Based on the hypothesis of technology heterogeneity, applying the non-competitive input-output table, this paper applies the bilateral input-output model to estimate the embodied carbon in India＇s foreign trade during 1995-2009, and draws on the SDA model to analyze the changes in the embod- ied carbon. The result shows that the embodied carbon in India＇s exports increased rapidly in the period of 1995-2009 from ll5Mt to 725Mt by 530%; the embodied carbon in India＇s imports also increased from 39Mt to 215Mt by 451%. India is a net exporter of embodied carbon. The decomposition results show that the scale effect and technical effect are the dominant factors in the growth of carbon embodied in India＇s exports; the structural effects contribute to the reduction of carbon embodied in India＇s exports, but not significantly. Lastly, this paper proposes some policy recommendations on India＇s effort to reduce embodied carbon in foreign and the cooperation of China and India in response to climate change.