基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的闽西红壤农田灌溉需水量预测研究

Prediction Study on the Irrigation Requirementin the Red Soil Hilly Farmland of West Fujian Province Based on the Grey GM( 1,1) Model

龙岩地处闽西,是典型的红壤丘陵区,其农田灌溉用水量占用水总量的比重较大,高达60.6%,科学合理地预测未来农田灌溉的需水量,对水资源的合理开发与管理尤为重要。本文在论述了灰色预测模型在农田灌溉需水量预测中的原理、方法与步骤的基础上,利用灰色预测GM（1,1）模型,依据龙岩市2001~2011年农田灌溉用水资料对实际农田灌溉用水量进行了模拟分析,经检验模型精度达到98.45%,准确度高;并用该模型对龙岩市2012~2020年农田灌溉需水量进行了预测。预测结果表明,该模型用于农田灌溉需水量预测,符合其灰色特性,可检验,适用性好,可为龙岩市水资源规划与管理提供必要的参考。

Abstract Located in the west part of Fujian province, LongyanMunicipality is a typical red soil hilly region, with higher ratio of farmland irrigation requirement in the total water requirement, reaching 60.6%. In order to the reasona- ble development and management of water resources, it is particularly important to forecast the irrigation requirement in the future scientifically. In accordance with the illustration of the principle, method and process of grey prediction model in the irrigation requirement prediction, by using the grey prediction GM （ 1, 1 ） model, the simulation analysis was conducted on the actual farmland irrigation amount based on the farmland irrigation water use data in 2001 - 2011 in LongyanMunicipality. Upon the testing, the accuracy of the model reaches to 98.45%, the accuracy is high. The model is also used in the prediction of farmland irrigation requirement during 2012 -2020 in Longyan Municipality. The forecasting results for the farmland irrigation requirement by this model showed that the model conforms to the gray characteristic that can be examined with good suitability. Therefore, the model may provide the essential references for the planning and management of water resources of LongyanMunicipality.