组合灰色预测模型对物流需求预测效果的分析

Analysis of Effect of Combination Grey Forecasting Model in Forecasting Logistics Demand

在线性回归与GM(1,1)组合模型对物流需求量预测,可取得优于单方法预测效果的前提下,将线性回归法运用到与DGM(1,1)模型进行组合,检测该组合灰色预测模型对物流需求量预测效果。通过对国内2001-2012年物流需求量历史数据的分析,发现组合灰色预测模型的预测效果优于线性回归模型,但低于DGM(1,1)模型,最后利用线性回归模型、DGM(1,1)模型、简单平均组合模型和组合灰色预测模型对国内2013-2017的物流需求量进行了有效预测。

In this paper, we combined the linear regression method and the DGM（1,1） model, tested its effect in forecasting logistics demand volume, and then in connection with the historical data of the logistics demand volume of China for the period between 2001 and 2012, decided that the combination model was superior to the linear regression model but poorer than the DGM（1,1 ） model.