中国潜在经济增长率测算方法的研究评述

A Review of Calculation Methods of China's Potential GDP Growth Rate

潜在经济增长率对应于经济中不存在产出缺口的自然增长情况。由于潜在经济增长率可以为宏观经济形势的判断和政策制定提供现实依据,日益受到研究机构和国际组织的重视,中国众多研究机构和学者也利用不同方法测算本国的潜在经济增长率。文章作者在大量文献搜集工作的基础上,总结和评述国内有关研究,将测算方法归纳为时间序列分析法、生产函数法、宏观经济增长模型法、投入产出法、国际比较外推法,并分别展开论述。

Potential GDP growth rate corresponds to natural economic growth which happens without output gap. Due to its supportive role in economic situation analysis and policy-making, potential GDP growth has attracted much attention from institutions, international organizations,as well as both domestic and overseas scholars. Reviewing extensive literature on the calculation of China＇s potential GDP growth rate , summary and comment have been illustrated in this artile. Specifically, various methods are categorized and reviewed as follows： Time -series analysis methods, The production function methods; Macroeconomic growth model methods; The input -output methods; International comparison methods.