基于改良德尔菲法的鼠疫风险评估指标体系的建立

Establishment of a risk assessment indicator system of plague using modified Delphi approach

目的 构建鼠疫风险评估指标体系,探索我国鼠疫风险评估和风险管理的基本方法.方法 采用文献检索和小范围专家会议法初步拟定鼠疫风险评估指标体系;应用德尔菲法,将风险评估指标编制成表格问卷,对专家进行咨询,并对每个指标的必要性、敏感性、可操作性及其相对权值进行评分;采用Excel 2007和SPSS 19.0软件计算指标权重.结果 根据鼠疫爆发流行的主要影响因素,建立了7个一级指标和17个二级指标的鼠疫风险评估指标体系,其中一级指标包括鼠疫的疫源地（5个二级指标）、病原学（2个二级指标）、传染源（4个二级指标）、传播途径（2个二级指标）、人群（1个二级指标）、地理环境（2个二级指标）和疫情动态（1个二级指标）.一级指标的专家评分分别为：7.712±1.337、7.763±1.586、7.927±1.366、7.144±2.138、6.652±2.128、5.939±1.991、5.580±2.018;权重分别为：0.158 3、0.159 3、0.162 7、0.146 6、0.136 5、0.121 9、0.114 5.结论 初步建立了鼠疫风险评估指标体系,探索出我国鼠疫风险评估的基本方法.

Objective To establish an plague risk assessment index system,and to provide a scientific basis for risk assessments and risk management of plague.Methods Preliminary framework and indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus.By Delphi approach,the risk assessment indexes were made into table questionnaire,and expert consultation was conducted.Necessity,sensitivity,operability and relative weight of risk assessment index were scored.Weights were determined by Excel 2007 and SPSS 19.0.Results A preliminary plague risk assessment index system including 7 first class indicators and 17 secondary class indicators was established based on the main factors of plague outbreak.The first class indicators included natural plague foci （5 secondary indicators）,etiology of plague （2 secondary indicators）,the source of infection（4secondary indicators）,the route of infection （2 secondary indicators）,susceptible populations （1 secondary indicator）,geographical environment （2 secondary indicators）,and epidemic dynamic （1 secondary indicator）.Expert scores of first class indicators were 7.712 ± 1.337,7.763 ± 1.586,7.927 ± 1.366,7.144 ± 2.138,6.652 ±2.128,5.939 ± 1.991 and 5.580 ± 2.018,respectively; weights were 0.158 3,0.159 3,0.162 7,0.146 6,0.136 5,0.121 9 and 0.114 5,respectively.Conclusion The risk assessment index system and risk management method of plague in China has been basically established.