中国种植业地理集聚的空间统计分析

Spatial Statistics Analysis of China’s Planting Geographic Agglomeration

基于1980-2012年中国29个省区的农作物总播种面积数据,运用空间统计方法考察和分析了中国省域种植业的空间依赖性和空间异质性,进一步探索了种植业的地理集聚特征和变化趋势。研究发现,中国种植业在整体和局部区域上都表现出了显著的正向空间自相关性,其空间分布呈现非随机的地理集聚格局,种植业的省际空间关联性和异质性非常明显,具有强烈的省际空间溢出效应;种植业呈现明显的＂中心-外围＂空间分布模式,并且其高-高集聚核心区域明显扩大。

Based on the panel data of crop sown area of China＇ s 29 provinces during 1980-2012, this paper apply spatialstatistics methods to analyzing planting＇ s spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity at the geographical dimension ofprovince, and further exploring the characteristics and changing trends of planting＇ s geographic agglomeration. Ourempirical result follows： in China, planting whether in the overall or local region, shows a significant positive spatialautocorrelation, with significant pattern of non-random geographic agglomeration and obvious spatial correlation andspatial heterogeneity, and with strong spatial spillover effects among provinces; at the same time, China＇ s plantingappeared obvious ＂core-periphery＂ spatial distribution model, and the core region of high-high agglomerationsignificantly expanded.