基于突变级数法的福建省环境承载力动态研究

Dynamic evaluation on the environmental carrying capacity in Fujian Province by mutation series method

利用突变级数法,对福建省2001-2010年环境承载力进行动态评价。结果表明:2001-2010年10年间福建省环境承载力呈现波动上升趋势,2001年承载力隶属度属于Ⅲ级,2002年降为Ⅰ级,之后环境承载力状况不断改善,由低承载力Ⅱ级上升为高承载力Ⅴ级。经济社会系统处于波动上升过程,资源环境系统承载力逐步上升,二者协同作用于整个系统环境承载力。突变级数法无需确定权重,有利于避免主观判断标准的不确定性对评价结果客观性的影响,可以很好地探测环境承载力所属等级及其趋势变化,为相关部门形势决策提供参考依据。

A dynamic evaluation is conducted on the environmental carrying capacity of Fujian Province in the duration between2001 and 2010 by mutation series method. Results reveal that the carrying capacity of environment in Fujian Province shows fluctuated upward trend from 2001 to 2010. The carrying capacity level in 2001 was on Grade Ⅲ,but reduced to GradeⅠ in 2002. The carrying capacity of low levels as GradeⅡ has risen to high carrying capacity Ⅴ after the environmental capacity conditions improved. The social and economic system is in the process of volatility,the carrying capacity of resources and environment system is gradually increased,the two system make a contribute to the whole system of environment carrying capacity. Mutation series method do not need to determine the weight and avoid affect of uncertainty of subjective judgment standard on objectivity evaluation. Environmental bearing capacity can be well detected subordinate degree and its trends change,providing a reference basis of situation decision-making for related sections.