多种模型下的武汉市医院床位数测算及比较

The Measurement and Comparison of Hospital Beds by Applying Different Methods in Wuhan

目的:以武汉市为例,采用不同方法对床位数进行预测,并比较不同方法的预测效果,同时结合供需平衡的原则,为该市的床位资源调控提供建议。方法:利用Holt模型、ETS模型以及GM(1,1)模型等多种方法,对武汉市的床位数进行预测。结果:在所选模型中GM(1,1)模型所预测结果较为理想。在标准床位利用较低的情况下,武汉的住院床位处于短缺状态的可能性较大;而在标准床位利用较高的情况下2020年住院床位过剩的可能性较大。结论:2015年武汉市床位数基本可处于供需平衡状态,而2020年病床很可能处于供需过剩的状态。

Objective： This paper designs to predict the number of beds in Wuhan by applying different kinds of methods, and compare pre- dictive effects of these methods. Then, we offer reasonable advice on bed regulation based on the coordination of supply and demand. Methods： Predicting the number of beds using Holt mode, ETS mode, GM （ 1, 1 ） mode, etc. Results： The predictive effect of GM （ 1, 1 ） mode turns out to be better. On condition of low bed utilization, beds in Wuhan are more likely to be in short supply. However, the number of beds will be sur- plus in 2020 if the utilization rate is high. Conclusion： Beds of Wuhan will be in the balance of supply and demand in 2015, while in 2020 beds will be surplus.