亭子口水利枢纽常遇洪水实时预报预泄调度研究

Study on real-time forecast and pre-discharge operation for frequent flood in Tingzikou Reservoir

为合理利用嘉陵江洪水资源,通过研究该流域水文气象特征、洪水组成及上游与中下游洪水的遭遇规律、水文气象预报水平等,对嘉陵江亭子口水库各设计频率洪水和典型大洪水进行了调洪演算分析。在不降低水库防洪标准、不增加下游防洪压力和防洪风险基本可控的前提下,提出了亭子口水利枢纽常遇洪水实时预报预泄调度的启动条件及控制指标。分析结果表明,实施常遇洪水预报预泄调度后,可增加丰、平、枯水年发电量。研究结果可为择机实施汛期水位动态控制提供依据。

In order to utilize the flood resources reasonably, through the study on hydrological and meteorological characteris-tics, flood composition and encountering law in mid-lower reach as well as forecasting technology, the flood regulation calcula-tion for different frequencies flood and typical large flood was conducted. The starting condition and controlling index of the real-time forecast and pre-discharge operation for frequent floods in Tingzikou Reservoir was put forward at the premise of not lower-ing the flood control standard and increasing flood pressure and risk to lower reach. The results show that by the forecast and pre-discharge operation, the power generation in dry year, normal year and wet year was increased, which provides basis for imple-menting dynamic control of water level in flood season at the right moment.