窟野河流域径流变化及人类活动对其的影响率

Variation of Runoff and Influence of Human Activity Rate in Kuye River Basin

利用王道恒塔、温家川2个水文站的实测降水、径流资料,应用M—K秩相关系数、R/S分析、降水—径流双累积曲线法等多种数值模型方法,分析了窟野河径流年际变化特征、径流变化趋势、降水变化以及人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)窟野河流域多年径流变化呈下降趋势,20世纪末以来尤为明显。(2)王道恒塔和温家川2个水文站的Hurst指数分别为0.853和0.803,表明未来一段时间内窟野河年径流变化趋势将与过去保持同一势态,有持续递减的特征。(3)不同历史阶段,人类活动的剧烈程度不同,对径流量减少的影响亦不同。影响最剧烈的阶段为1997—2010年,该阶段人类活动对径流减少的影响所占比例在2个水文站分别高达80.48%和93.62%。人类活动的加剧是导致窟野河径流量锐减的主要原因。

Based on historical records from two hydrological stations of Wangdaohengta and Wenjiachuan, the runoff variation characteristics and influence factors, which include runoff inter-annual variation characteristics, changing trend, precipitation change, and the impact of human activities, were analyzed by using different analyzing methods, such as Mann--Kendall trend analysis, R/S analysis, and double mass curve for annual rainfall stream flow. The results showed that the multi-year change of runoff had a distinctive decreased tendency, especially since the end of the 20th Century. The Hurst index were 0. 853 and 0. 803 for the Wangdaohengta and Wenjiachuan stations, respectively, which indicates that the decreasing trends of runoff in Kuye River would continue in the future. The rainfall and human activities had a different influence on runoff in different periods. During 1997--2010, the runoff descending proportions caused by the human activities are as high as 80.48% and 93.62~ in Wangdaohengta and Wenjiachuan stations, therefor aggravating human activities were the main reason for runoff descending in Kuye River.