小流域综合治理方案的模拟与优化调控——以渭北旱塬淳化县秦庄沟流域为例

Optimization-control and Simulation on Comprehensive Management Scheme of Small Watershed——A Case Study of Qinzhuanggou Watershed in Dry Upland of Northern Weihe River

以渭北旱塬淳化县秦庄沟流域为例,分析了小流域系统内部生态、经济、社会三大子系统相互作用的关系。以水土保持为中心,以沼气池为纽带,生态、经济、社会治理目标为衡量依据,运用VENSIM软件构建SEE(社会—生态—经济)系统动力学模型,量化分析了生态、经济、社会3大子系统的综合治理效益,并对系统2011—2026年时间段内的发展趋势进行了模拟。模拟比较分析结果表明,方案3(人均产粮目标为350kg的自给型模式)为水土保持生态设计的优化方案。该模式从源头上改变了秦庄沟流域系统恶化的趋势,可使生态系统中水土流失得到有效控制,消除点源面源污染;使流域的生态农业建设得到进一步发展,人均收入达到6 000元;可以在全流域实现饮水安全,出行便利和改善人居环境。

Taking Qinzhuanggou watershed in dry upland of northern Weihe River as a case, the interactive relationship of ecology, economy and society in small watershed system was analyzed. Using VENSIM software to build a dynamic model of SEE（society ecology--economy）, with focusing on soil and water conservation, taking the methane pool as link, the goal of management of ecological subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem as the judgment basis, and quantitatively analyzing the comprehensive governance efficiency of ecological subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem. Moreover, the simulation of the development trend from 2011 to 2026 was made by using the dynamic model of SEE. The result showed that the 3rd scheme（subsistence mode that the per capita grain yield goals is 350 kg） can be taken as the opti- mization scheme for soil and water conservation and ecological design, the declining trend of Qinzhuanggou watershed system will be changed, such as water and soil loss will be controlled effectively, point and non- point source pollution will be eliminated, ecological agriculture will be developed, income per capita will be RMB 6 000 yuan, rural drinking water safety will be realized fully, the trip will be convenience, living environment will be improved.