安徽省农业可持续发展能力动态分析

Dynamics Analysis of Agricultural Sustainable Development Capability of Anhui Province

基于安徽省2000—2010年的农业相关基础数据,在构建农业可持续发展能力综合评价体系基础上,利用熵值分析方法从经济、社会、人口和资源、环境持续性5个层面对农业可持续发展能力进行了动态分析。建立了协调度模型,并对农业可持续发展5个子系统11a的协调状态进行了评价。结果表明,2000—2010年安徽省农业可持续发展的整体水平呈现出稳步攀升的态势,但各个子系统的可持续发展水平的差异显著,经济子系统的起点高,发展最快,社会、人口子系统次之,3者均保持平稳较快增长态势;而资源和环境子系统的发展缓慢,甚至负增长,状态呈下滑趋势。安徽省11a间农业可持续发展的协调状况不容乐观,基本处于不协调状态。

Based on the original data in agriculture from 2000 to 2010 in Anhui Province and the construction of comprehensive assessment system for agricultural sustainable development capability, We conduct a dy- namic analysis on agricultural sustainable development capability from the five levels of economic, social, ec- ological, environmental and resource sustainability by using entropy method. And the coordination degree model was established in order to expand the evaluation on the coordination state of the agricultural sustain- able development of the five sub-systems from 2000 to 2010. The result indicates that the overall level of agricultural sustainable development shows a steadily rising trend in Anhui Province during 2000--2010, however, the levels of the sustainable development have a significant difference among the various sub-systems. The economic sub-system has a higher starting point and was grown fastest, followed by social sub-system and demographic sub-system; They all maintain a steady and rapid growth state. Whereas the resource sub- system and the environmental sub-system are at a slower developing speed, they even have a negative growth and still decrease. The coordination situation of the agricultural sustainable development from 2000 to 2010 in Anhui Province is not optimistic, it was basically at the uncoordinated state.