气候变化对宁夏自治区中卫市环香山地区气候生产潜力的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Climatic Potential Productivity Around Xiangshan Mountain Area in Zhongwei City of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

根据宁夏回族自治区中卫市兴仁气象站1961—2008年逐月气温、降水数据,采用Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型模拟了中卫市环香山地区气候生产潜力及其变化。结果表明:(1)环香山地区气候向"暖干型"方向变化,年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,降水量变化波动大,呈逐年递减的趋势;(2)温度生产潜力逐年增加,降水生产潜力和气候生产潜力呈波动中减少的趋势;(3)气候生产潜力与年平均降水量具有着极其显著的线性相关关系,与年平均气温没有明显的相关性,温度生产潜力分别是降水生产潜力和气候生产潜力的2.79和2.35倍,说明降水条件是制约环香山地区气候生产潜力的关键因子;(4)对未来气候进行情景模拟分析,结果表明环香山地区气候主要以"暖干型"气候为主,这对当地农业生产极为不利,需大力发展节水农业技术以保证农业生产。

Based on monthly data of the mean temperature and precipitation during 1961--2008 from the Xin- gren Meteorological Station in Zhongwei City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the climate potential pro- ductivity and its changes were calculated by using the Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model. The results indicated that. （1） The average temperature clearly tended to increase, and the precipitation fluctuated significantly and tended to decrease, which showed that the climate type becoming warm and dry. （2） The temperature potential productivity increased year by year while the precipitation potential productivity and climate potential productivity decreased with fluctuation. （3） The precipitation was highly linearly related to climate potential productivity, but average temperature had no obvious linear correlation to climate potential productivity. The average temperature potential productivity was 2.79 and 2.35 times of that of the precipi- tation and climate, which indicated that precipitation was the key factor that restricted the climate potential productivity around Xiangshan Mountain. （4） Through scenario analysis of future climate changes, it is found to be warm-dry-type climate as a whole, which is unfavorable for agricultural production around Xian- gshan Mountain. Thus, the technology of water-saving agriculture should be rapidly developed to ensure the agricultural production.