陕西省碳排放影响因素及其区域分异特征

Factors and Regional Characteristics of Carbon Emission in Shaanxi Province

根据1996—2010年陕西省终端能源消费数据及2010年各市区单位GDP能耗数据,对陕西省碳排放量进行了核算,并基于Kaya恒等式,利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型对陕西省碳排放的影响因素进行了分解分析。结果表明:(1)陕西省碳排放总量、人均碳排放量在1996—2000年均为小幅度下降,此后大幅度增加,而碳排放强度总体呈现出下降趋势。从能源消费碳排放比例来看,煤炭消费碳排放量占绝对比重(70.47%)。(2)陕西省各市区碳排放总量与碳排放强度表现出明显的区域分异特征。陕西省的碳排放总量关中最高,陕北次之,陕南最小;地级市区中:西安市、榆林市和渭南市排放量超过5.00×106 t,杨凌区的碳排放量仅有7.21×104 t;渭南市和榆林市碳排放强度较高,而商洛市和杨凌区碳排放强度较低。(3)经济产出、产业结构及人口规模对陕西省碳排放量的增加表现为正效应,能源结构和能源强度对陕西省碳排放量的增加表现为负效应。其中经济增长是陕西省碳排放量增加的决定因素,而能源强度降低是碳排放量减少的决定因素。

Adopting the data about Shaanxi terminal energy consumption during 1996--2010 and energy consumption per unit of GDP for each city in Shaanxi Province in 2010, the total carbon emission, per capita carbon emission and carbon emission intensity were estimated, and the influence factors of carbon emission were analyzed by using LMDI （logarithmic mean divisia index） decomposition model based on the Kaya identity. The results show that： （1） The total carbon emission and per capita carbon emission of energy consumption were fallen slightly during 1996--2000, then showed a trend of increased volatility year by year during 2001--2010 in Shaanxi Province, while the carbon emission intensity presented a downward trend overall. According to the energy ratio of carbon emission, coal con- sumption accounted for absolute proportion（70.47%）. （2） There were obvious differences of total carbon emission among each cities in Shaanxi Province, it was the highest in Guanzhong area, it was second in Northern Shaanxi Province, and it was the lowest in Southern Shaanxi Province; In the regional city： carbon emission were by more than 5.00×10^6 t in Yulin, Xi＇an and Weinan City, but it was only 7.21 10^4 t in Yangling zone; The intensity was higher in Yulin and Weinan City, and was lower in Yangling zone and Shangluo City. （3） Economic output, industrial structure and population size showed a positive effect on carbon emis- sion increasing during this period, while the energy intensity and energy structure showed a negative effect. Among all these influence factors, economic growth is the decisive factor for the carbon emission increasing, and the reduction of the energy intensity is a major determinant of carbon emission decreasing.