摘要
目的 采用Logistic模型模拟甲型H1N1流感大流行过程. 方法 使用Logistic模型对长沙市甲型H1N1流感大流行疫情进行拟合,确定模型的参数;推导模型的3个关键点,对大流行疫情进行定量分期. 结果 长沙市甲型H1N1流感疫情可以分为“输入期”、“本地扩散期”、“大流行期”三个时期.“大流行期”的Logistic模型方程为:n=6878/1+e-(0.1166t-8.3859).模型模拟结果显示,“大流行期”分为三个阶段:①渐增期(第105~166 d),在该时期,疫情发展缓慢,是采取防控措施的最佳时期;②快增期(第167~ 188 d),此时期的防控难度较大,付出的防控成本可能收不到预期的效果;③缓增期(第189~244 d),在该时期,免疫屏障已逐步建立,采取防控措施效果将不明显. 结论 Logistic模型能较好地模拟城市甲型H1N1流感大流行过程.
Objective To simulate the spreading process of influenza A (H1NI) pandemic with Logistic model. Methods Data about influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha were employed for simulating and confirming the parameters of the mod- al. 3 critical points of the model were deduced for dividing the pandemic into different stages. Results The influenza A (H1 N1 ) pandemic in Changsha could be divided into three phases, including "case - import phase", "local - case - spread phase" and "pandemic phase". Logistic model equation of "pandemic phase" was n=6878/1+e-(0.1166t-8.3859) The predictive results of the model showed that the pandemic was expected to experience three phrases: (1) increasingly growing stage (105th- 166th d), in which the epidemic developed slowly and could be intervened relatively easilyl (2) rapidly growing stage (167th- 188th d), in which it was difficult to take preventive measures and might pot receive expected effectiveness at greater cast; (3) relaxedly growing stage (189th- 244tb d), in which immunological barrier had been built up and the efficacy of the preventive measures was not significant. Conclusions Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic can be simulated perfectly by Logistic model.
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2014年第9期1052-1055,共4页
Practical Preventive Medicine
基金
湖南省卫生厅科研项目(B2012-138)
长沙市科技局科研项目(K1205028-31)