利用Crystal Ball进行基于时间序列的人口预测——以澳门为例

Population prediction of time series using Crystal Ball——take Macao as example

珠三角是我国经济发展最快的地区之一,正值建设进程中的港珠澳大桥对促进香港、澳门和珠江三角洲西岸地区经济的进一步发展具有重要的战略意义。澳门毗邻珠海,其人口数量和结构的变化对珠三角地区尤其是珠海市的经济结构会造成很大的影响。本文以预测澳门未来的人口发展趋势为例,阐述如何利用Crystal Ball软件进行基于时间序列的人口预测,以期对于珠海及澳门未来在加快相关产业转型升级、转变外贸发展方式、加快医疗、养老、教育、房地产、户籍制度等相关方面需求改革与合作等起到一定的借鉴意义。

The Pearl River Delta is one of China＇s fastest growing economic regions, with the process of the construction of the Hong Kong Zhuhai Macao Bridge, it has important strategic meaning to promote the further economic development of Hongkong, Macao and the West Bank of the Pearl River Delta area. Macao is adja- cent to Zhuhai, the change of its population and the structure will cause a great impact on the Pearl River Delta region, especially Zhuhai city economic structure.ln this paper, It forecasts the future population development trend of Macao as an example and explains how to predict the time series of population based on using Crystal Ball software. It will play a certain reference significance to Zhuhai and Macao in the future to speed up the industrial transformation and upgrading, to change the mode of foreign trade, to speed up the demand reform and cooperation of related medical, pension, education, real estate, such as the household registration system.