基于模糊灰色理论的某老旧宾馆火灾危险性评价

Fire Risk Assessment of an Old Hotel Based on Fuzzy-Grey Theory

目的为快速合理地评价老旧宾馆火灾危险性,根据模糊灰色理论建立老旧宾馆火灾危险性评价模型,在评价模型的基础上开发软件用于评价建筑火灾危险性.方法根据老旧宾馆火灾的发生蔓延过程确定其火灾危险性评价模型各级指标因素,利用层次分析法确定模型各指标因素的权重系数,运用Visual Basic 6.0语言编写老旧宾馆火灾危险性评价软件,对某老旧宾馆火灾危险性进行评价.结果根据建立的老旧宾馆火灾危险性评价指标体系开发了"老旧建筑火灾危险性评价软件".利用开发的软件评价了某老旧宾馆第六层客房发生火灾而引起宾馆整体燃烧的危险性,评价结果为比较安全.结论通过分析老旧宾馆火灾发生蔓延三阶段的火灾危险性最终对老旧宾馆火灾危险性进行评价的方法是可行的,开发的软件便于操作且运行结果可靠,可用于快速评价老旧宾馆火灾危险性.

In order to assess fire risk of old hotels quickly and reasonably, a model for an assess- merit system of fire risk of old hotels was built, based on the fuzzy-grey theory. According to the old hotel fire spreading process, index factors of the model at different levels for fire risk evalua- tion and the weight coefficients of different indexes were determined by using analytic hierarchy process. A software for fire risks assessment of old buildings was developed with the help of Visual Basic 6.0. Using the developed software, the fire risk assessment for an old hotel was carried out. It is shown that when a fire occurs in the room on sixth floor, the risk of a fire spreading to the whole building is relatively low. The assessment results demonstrate the model for fire risks in old hotels based on the analysis of three different phases is feasible. It indicates that the software devel- oped by the authors is reliable, easy to operate and can be used to assess fire risks of old hotels quickly.