生产变量、基础设施和区域产业结构升级——对广东省的实证研究

Production Variable,Infrastructural Construction and Upgrading Regional Industrial Structure——an Empirical Research of Guangdong Province

产业结构升级不仅取决于生产变量提升的速度,还取决于基础设施是否作出了相应改进。本文构建指标体系,并利用熵值法和主成分方法计算准则层和目标层指数,分析广东省生产变量和基础设施与区域产业结构升级的关系及其动态变化。结果表明生产变量、基础设施和产业结构升级互为Granger因果关系;在产业阶段较低时,生产变量和基础设施的弹性均显著,但后者改进释放出的推动力远高于前者;随着产业阶段提高,基础设施的弹性系数依然显著,但对产业升级的支撑逐渐显得乏力。揭示出自然资源、资本和人力资源与科技创新等生产变量的提升固然重要,同时也要重视硬性和软性基础设施的优化。

The pace of industrial upgrading depends on not only improving production variables, but also on promoting infrastructural construction. The paper sets up an indicator system of industrial upgrading and production variables and infrastructure, figures out indexes of each factor with entropy method and principal analysis. The results of empirical analysis of Guangdong province show that Granger causality exists between production variables and infrastructure with industrial upgrading. In the low industrial stage, two elasticity coefficients are significant, and improving infrastructure can release more power than production variables. With the industrial stage developing further, the elasticity coefficient of infrastructure is still significant, but relatively weak in the last stage. It indicates that it is equivalently important to improve both production variables and infrastructure.