中国经济转型视角下的Feldstein-Horioka事实再检验

Feldstein-Horioka Fact Reexamination from the Perspective of China's Transformation Economy

立足于中国经济转型研究的前沿,利用时变参数方法对Feldstein-Horioka事实进行再检验;进一步,引入金融发展变量作为刻画经济转型下金融发展状况的替代变量进行扩展分析。实证结果表明:首先,在中国经济转型过程中,受国内外重大经济事件的影响,储蓄—投资关系具有明显的时变波动特征;其次,金融发展变量的引入并未对储蓄—投资关系产生显著影响,表明中国金融体系改革仍不完善,未能充分发挥其对资源配置的作用;最后,中国的储蓄—投资关系基本上是一种统计关系,并不能表示储蓄向投资转化的高效率。这与多数现有研究结论基本一致。

This paper utilizes time-varying parameter method to re-examine the Feldstein-Horio- ka fact in China＇s transformation economy. Besides, the analysis is extended l^y introducing a proxy variable controlling for the effect of financial development. The result reveals that the relationship between saving and investment varies over Chings economic transformation process, which is affect- ed by the major economic events at home or abroad. Furthermore, the introduction of a proxy varia- ble controlling for the effect of financial development does not have a significant effect on the rela- tionship between saving and investment. The result indicates that the financial system reform in China is not thorough since the financial system reform failed to run smoothly on the allocation of resources. Finally, we should point out that the relationship between China＇s savings and investment is only a statistical one, yet it does not indicate the efficiency of conversion from saving to investment, which complies with most of the existing researches.